Coldblooded Statistics

Album Cover: In Rainbows

"Words are a sawed-off shotgun."
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Posted on February 14, 2014 11:00 AM in Computers
Warning: This blog entry was written two or more years ago. Therefore, it may contain broken links, out-dated or misleading content, or information that is just plain wrong. Please read on with caution.

Man vs. Machine I read an interesting article this morning about algorithms that attempt to predict conflict and revolutions. Having an obvious interest in predictive algorithms, the main premise of the article was more than enough to pique my interest. However, I found an anecdote in the article about how computers immediately outperformed CIA analysts in predicting future turmoil particularly fascinating:

Why was it so easy to beat the CIA's best analysts? To some extent, the answer has more to do with humans than machines. Imagine the agency's Indonesia expert, for example. He wants to make accurate predictions, but he's also subject to a range of biases that never show up in the data. He wants his work to be exciting and relevant, earning the attention of his superiors; he wants Indonesia to be important in the world. Predictions are also used to direct resources within the CIA, and he may want to attract more of the resources than the Indonesia bureau would otherwise receive. By the time all the biases are accounted for, he's doing only slightly better than a coin flip. The statistics, on the other hand, don't have to worry about internal politics or hurt feelings.

That last line is great (because it's so true), and certainly adds some color to the whole debate about computers and technology taking over jobs we are used to being associated with humans.

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